J.P. Crawford Is Choosier and Bruisier

Have I obtained information for you. The J.P. Crawford and love is now 50% extra highly effective! After operating an ISO of .099 during the last two seasons, the Mariners shortstop is at .150 in 2023. And that’s not all. With that energy has come elevated manufacturing: Crawford’s 133 wRC+ is not only the very best of his profession, it’s second amongst all shortstops, trailing solely Corey Seager’s 179 wRC+. Let’s act now and determine what Crawford is doing in a different way this season.

With Crawford, plate self-discipline is all the time place to start out. Crawford has all the time run low chase charges, however this season, he’s all the way down to 21.2%. That’s fifth-lowest amongst all certified gamers, and it’s led to a 15.6% stroll price, fourth-highest. Nonetheless, whereas Crawford is chasing much less and strolling extra, he’s additionally hanging out extra. Whereas his 19% strikeout price remains to be higher than the typical participant, it’s a leap of greater than 5 proportion factors from final season.

Crawford is operating a career-best 37.3% hard-hit price. That’s nonetheless effectively under common, however it’s an enormous leap for somebody who was within the fifth percentile in 2022. It might appear to be Crawford has made the basic power-for-contact tradeoff, however that’s solely true to an extent. Gamers who make that tradeoff often whiff extra as a result of they’re being extra aggressive on the plate. Crawford is hitting the ball more durable and hanging out extra, however he’s truly been extra passive than ever. His swing price has dropped by virtually precisely the identical quantity on pitches contained in the zone and out of doors the zone.

I’m going to point out you three warmth maps. The one within the center is Crawford’s slugging proportion on balls in play over the course of his profession. It reveals the place he does harm. On the left is Crawford’s swing price in 2022, and on the correct is his swing price in 2023:

That is as massive a change as you’re going to see. Final 12 months, Crawford would swing at just about something over the guts of the plate. This 12 months, he’s targeted on a a lot smaller space, pitches within the absolute heart of the zone, a lot nearer to the place he actually does harm. Right here’s what that appears like by way of Baseball Savant’s swing/take selections:

Crawford is chasing much less, so the enhancements within the shadow and chase zones shouldn’t shock us a lot. The center of the plate is the place issues get attention-grabbing. Let’s break these numbers into their constituent elements:

In each 2022 and to this point in 2023, when Crawford took pitches over the guts of the plate, he was price -11 runs. That’s is sensible, as all of these pitches find yourself as known as strikes. When he has swung at pitches over the guts of the plate, he’s been 16 runs higher than he was final 12 months! His wOBA on these swings has gone from .312 to .400. Crawford is taking extra strikes, which hurts just a little, however he’s greater than making up for it when he does swing.

Nonetheless, none of this explains why he’s making much less contact. Right here’s the factor I feel is actually fascinating. Check out Crawford’s whiff proportion damaged down by pitch kind:

Crawford is gearing as much as hit the fastball in a means he hasn’t been in earlier seasons. He’s lacking them a bit much less usually, and his wOBA in opposition to them has jumped from .315 to .394. Gearing as much as hit the fastball can have a facet impact: getting fooled extra usually on softer stuff. Crawford is whiffing much more in opposition to breaking balls and offspeed stuff. Nonetheless, that doesn’t essentially imply he’s performing worse on softer stuff. Check out his precise outcomes, as soon as once more utilizing Baseball Savant’s run values:

Crawford is certainly doing worse in opposition to breaking stuff, however he has fully turned himself round in opposition to each fastballs and offspeed stuff. How is he doing so effectively in opposition to changeups and splitters when he’s whiffing on them over 50% extra usually than he did final 12 months? Moreover, since he’s now a lot worse in opposition to breaking balls, why haven’t pitchers began throwing them far more usually?

The reply to the primary query is that Crawford is offsetting all these additional whiffs by hitting the ball a lot more durable, particularly in opposition to offspeed stuff. His tender contact price has dropped to a profession low, and his Ninety fifth-percentile exit velocity elevated from 105 mph to 106.2. As for the second query, breaking stuff usually requires a hitter to chase to be able to be efficient, and Crawford doesn’t try this. In case your plan is to get Crawford out by deluging him with tender stuff, you’re more likely to find yourself behind within the rely.

As I pulled all these numbers collectively, I used to be reminded of one thing Robert Orr wrote again in June for Baseball Prospectus. Orr detailed how Ronald Acuña Jr., beforehand a dead-pull hitter, had begun letting fastballs journey just a little deeper and sending them the opposite means, which led to a handy knock-on impact:

“What occurs when Acuña thinks a fastball is coming and he’s improper. If he begins on time for 96 and will get 96, then he laces a base hit into the hole. That’s good. If he begins on time for 96 and will get 87, although? That’s when he can catch the ball out in entrance of the plate, and that’s the place homers are. That’s higher.”

Crawford is coming from the alternative finish of the spectrum. He ran a 34.2% pull price final 12 months, in comparison with Acuña’s 44.5%. However this 12 months, they’ve ended up in the identical place: Crawford at 41% and Acuña at 40.5%. Right here’s what the change appears to be like like whenever you break it down by pitch kind:

Crawford is pulling the ball far more usually, particularly in opposition to non-fastballs. These pulled balls haven’t was homers, as a result of even this model of him remains to be means much less highly effective than Acuña, however he’s gone from the underside finish of the spectrum up towards the center. Additional, Crawford’s 39.2% groundball price is the bottom it’s been since he grew to become an everyday starter. Assembly these balls out in entrance helps him pull them within the air, taking advantage of his elevated energy.

Underneath regular circumstances, I might need ended this text right here. We’re pushing 2,000 phrases, and I’ve typed the identify Crawford so many occasions that I’ve misplaced the flexibility to grasp its that means. It’s only a string of letters to me, and that A-W-F-O part within the center is actually beginning to freak me out. Who does that? The one phrase I can consider that incorporates an A-W-F-O stretch is ‘clawfoot,’ and I feel we will all agree that that’s one of many creepiest phrases within the English language. Nonetheless, there are two issues I’d nonetheless like to deal with. The primary is how Crawford happened this additional energy. You would possibly do not forget that he’s tried to enhance his energy output earlier than. Earlier than the 2021 season, he packed on 20 kilos of muscle in hopes of accelerating his slugging. Sadly the Get Yoked, Go Smash technique solely raised his ISO by 20 factors, whereas his hard-hit price truly obtained worse.

This 12 months, he’s elevated his common exit velocity by 3.9 mph, the third-highest leap amongst certified gamers. A few of this may be defined by selecting higher pitches to hit and pulling the ball extra usually. A few of it may doubtless be defined by improved well being, since Crawford performed via again, pec, leg, and knee accidents final season. Lastly, Crawford educated at Driveline this offseason, after taking six weeks to get well from the entire accidents to all of his physique elements.

Whereas I used to be researching this text, I stumbled onto an episode of the Sea Degree podcast that featured Maxx Garrett, the hitting coach who labored with Crawford this winter. I’m usually reluctant to attract a straight line from a swing change to improved outcomes. There are such a lot of elements concerned in hitting. Seemingly all people comes into spring coaching in the very best form of their life and with a brand new swing. A few of these gamers are sure to enhance, and whereas the arduous work they put in in the course of the offseason doubtless helped, giving all of the credit score to their new bat waggle is commonly a facile conclusion. Nonetheless, Garrett gave host Ben Ranieri some fairly attention-grabbing particulars that dovetailed properly with what I discovered within the numbers.

First, Garrett confirmed that the main focus was on bettering Crawford’s bat velocity, as his plate self-discipline is already elite. Referring to his notes, he stated that Crawford’s bat velocity was measured at 65.6 mph in the beginning of coaching and 71.1 on the finish. “We noticed some motion issues, particularly together with his setup, his load, type of that load, stride, into touchdown, the place he was in some distinctive positions that not lots of our high-level hitters get into,” stated Garrett. “And it was making it more durable for him to supply as a lot drive as he was able to.”

Let’s go to the tape. On the left is a swing from 2022, and on the correct is a swing from 2023:

I’ve pulled some stills under for instance the variations. Crawford begins off together with his stance rather more closed. He’s modified his bat angle, lowered his palms, and tucked each his palms and elbows nearer to his physique. As soon as he will get into his leg kick, he’s crouching barely deeper, his entrance shoulder is angled downward, and his shoulders are rotated additional away from the pitcher. If not for his hair, his complete identify could be seen on the again of his jersey. The follow-through makes it simple to see how a lot more durable Crawford is swinging, and the way a lot increased he’s ending. Remember that Crawford crushes each of those pitches. They’re each middle-middle four-seamers that lead to hard-hit balls to right-center. Crawford truly hits the ball on the left a lot more durable, however take a look at how he finishes. He’s rather more upright, a lot much less athletic. The swing on the correct is clearly extra explosive:

Garrett additionally stated that they targeted on Crawford’s assault angle, serving to him to hit the ball within the air extra. That is the half that made me sit up and pay attention: Garrett described a drill that concerned feeding Crawford fastballs from an especially excessive assault angle and from off to the facet, past the correct base facet of the rubber. “So mainly, an excessive lefty launch,” he stated. “And that was forcing him to get his barrel out entrance, have it work up. His intent was to maneuver quick, hit the ball increased, to the pull facet. Actually get his barrel out entrance, working up extra into the ball.” To me, that seems like a reasonably good clarification for the way in which Crawford has been capable of assault fastballs, punish offspeed stuff, and pull the ball within the air this season.

The very last thing I want to say is much less enjoyable. Crawford’s protection has been fairly unhealthy this 12 months. A Gold Glover in 2020, Crawford’s 14 errors are tied for fifth-most within the league, and most defensive metrics rank him as one of many sport’s worst fielders. That’s an actual bummer, as a result of if Crawford rated as even a league-average defender at brief, he could be a high 20 participant in all of baseball this season. It’s all the time good to take defensive metrics with a grain of salt, and any participant experiencing such a giant drop-off is a candidate to regress again to the imply the next season. Crawford has already turned himself into an All-Star caliber participant this season. If he can maintain on to a few of his positive aspects on the plate and get his protection again towards the center of the pack, the long run is even brighter.

All numbers are as of Wednesday morning.