The Padres Have a Sophisticated Future

Padres followers in 2023 don’t have a ton to be enthusiastic about. The Friars have been in win-now mode for the final 4 seasons and are staring down their second shedding marketing campaign throughout that span. One of many two successful seasons was sort of ruined — for everybody on the planet — by a raging pandemic, leaving followers with just one 12 months that was each regular and an pleasant expertise since 2010. In contrast to loads of groups with an identical efficiency report, it’s not for lack of funding within the workforce. Only a few months after the big commerce that introduced Juan Soto to city, the workforce signed Xander Bogaerts to a $280 million contract and stored Manny Machado from opting out with a good spicier $350 million pact. The Padres additionally agreed on a $100 million contract for Joe Musgrove and locked up Yu Darvish for $108 million. That’s greater than $800 million, so we’re not speaking concerning the case of, say, the White Sox having points partially as a result of they couldn’t be bothered to fill large holes within the lineup as a result of that may have required cash.

As gloomy because the season feels proper now, there are nonetheless reputable causes to suppose the Padres are baseball workforce. Their 68–54 Pythagorean report is 10 wins above their precise report, and information derived from run differential are extra predictive than win-loss report. The projections all nonetheless agree there’s loads to love and equally have report, comparatively talking, of predicting the long run. And this holds true even when speaking about groups with the most important disagreement between the projections and the report. Wanting on the 25 groups that FanGraphs like higher than their seasonal successful proportion essentially the most, coin flips missed their rest-of-season successful percentages by a mean of 86 factors, season to-date information by 81 factors, and FanGraphs information by 65 factors. These 25 groups had performed .396 ball via August 14 of their seasons; FanGraphs projected a .476 RoS successful proportion, and the precise RoS successful proportion for these groups was .458. We weren’t imagining issues.

However the elementary drawback the Padres face is that it’s merely far too late to be the workforce they hoped they have been. Our projections nonetheless consider they’re a .572 workforce, however that’s solely ok for a 19% likelihood of constructing the postseason with a divisional likelihood that rounds to zero; the ZiPS projections have it at 15%. Whereas these are nonetheless fairly good odds, particularly in comparison with how the season has felt, it’s nonetheless much more doubtless than not that this 12 months finally ends up being a darkish companion to the 2021 season that additionally led to stunningly bleak style.

And right here’s the issue: the Padres mission to be worse sooner or later than they’re now. You can say that about most groups, however the Padres are additionally a workforce that has an enormous quantity of payroll already tied up in a declining roster, an unsigned Soto approaching free company, and doubtless not loads of room left to develop in a payroll sense. Complicating issues even additional is the monetary collapse of Bally Sports activities, because the workforce has not but found out learn how to exchange that income. Forbes estimated the Padres misplaced $53 million in 2022, and issues are prone to worsen from there. Peter (Seidler) really noticed a wolf.

Operating some up-to-date projections for gamers signed long-term demonstrates the enormity of the workforce’s problem. I’m going to begin with the Padres’ core of six gamers who’ve assured contracts with annual salaries of at $10 million or extra via at the very least the 2026 season. No matter occurs elsewhere on the workforce, these six are nearly actually going to be a part of the muse.

Chances are you’ll cringe trying on the finish of Machado’s contract, however ZiPS already anticipated that earlier than the season. Machado put collectively a powerful sufficient July — although he’s slumped since then and is nursing a sore hamstring — and skilled a transparent return to defensive kind to trigger his 2024-and-on projections to tick up barely. Whereas ZiPS didn’t just like the deal, it doesn’t prefer it any lower than it did in February.

Bogaerts was mired in a deep stoop in Could and June, aided by a sore wrist, however has hit a extra Xanderian .290/.351/.413 because the begin of July, in-line with preseason expectations. As with Machado’s current deal, the Padres go into this contract realizing that they’re paying for Bogaerts to say no.

This can be a little bit of a clumsy projection as a result of it highlights an assumption in workforce development that turned out to not be true. Sometimes, a good defensive second baseman who can credibly pretend taking part in shortstop will often fare properly at first base, however that simply has not occurred, at the very least to date, with Jake Cronenworth. With Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 firmly entrenched as a starter, the Padres have a participant with worth however not a logical place to play him in an effort to get that worth. The distinction is excessive sufficient that ZiPS thinks that Cronenworth is now greater than a win per season much less precious at first than second base.

Add in the truth that Cronenworth is having a down 12 months (and a reasonably odd one by way of Statcast knowledge), and there’s only a lot much less purpose to love his future than there was earlier than.

The place the positional gods punished the Padres with Cronenworth, they have been far kinder right here. Tatis’ bat isn’t fairly the place it was, however he’s really turned out to be an glorious defensive outfielder, at the very least to date. Given his age, he’s the one participant who tasks to complete out his contract as a plus contributor to the workforce.

ZiPS was all the time pretty pessimistic concerning the Darvish extension, and with out him reversing the continued sluggish decline in his peripherals, it hasn’t modified course because the begin of the season. Whereas I all the time say “hitters age, pitchers break,” Darvish is at an age the place cliffs do, in truth, beckon. ZiPS didn’t even wish to mission the ultimate two seasons of his extension; I’ll be sort and never drive it to, so we’ll name these zero-WAR seasons, which is sunnier than what ZiPS would say if I made it.

The efficiency projections of Musgrove have stayed about the identical — hardly stunning contemplating that when he was wholesome, he was having an identical season to final 12 months. However his return this season stays up within the air, and new accidents create new threat for a pitcher, so his projected innings totals have dropped significantly.

OK, let’s throw everyone into one desk, full with their salaries.

If the projections maintain true, these six will make up lower than a 3rd of the WAR wanted to be a 90-win workforce as quickly as 2026, after they mix for $120 million in wage. Except the workforce continues to spend increasingly cash, it’s going to get tougher and tougher to make use of {dollars} to patch holes, which signifies that the farm system has to get again to producing in a short time. The Padres aren’t doubtless to have the ability to win on the backs of those six gamers for very lengthy, which signifies that they doubtless should give you an entire new core of expertise round these gamers.

The danger right here is one among dynastic failure. I’m not calling the Padres a dynasty by way of baseball success, however extra how the time period has been used traditionally. Plenty of warlords in historical past managed to get a throne, however to determine long-term rule, they needed to survive the transition to the subsequent rulers. The Astros are an instance of a workforce that has averted dynastic failure; solely a handful of the gamers on the workforce that gained the World Sequence in 2017 have been nonetheless on the roster when Houston gained the World Sequence in 2022. Solely Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman stay among the many Astros’ offensive contributors right this moment, and the one pitcher nonetheless in Houston, Lance McCullers Jr., gained’t pitch once more till 2024 [and Verlander who I forgot about for some very odd reason -DS]. They mainly got here up with practically a completely new workforce in 5 years.

Baseball historical past is riddled with profitable groups that have been unable to transition to the subsequent period with no important interregnum, such because the Utley-Howard Phillies and the Tigers throughout the peak Miguel Cabrera years. However these Phillies gained a World Sequence, and whereas the Tigers didn’t, that they had extra playoff success than these Padres groups have had. To attain that success, the Padres are going to should be extraordinarily artistic over the subsequent 5 years, lest they find yourself as one of many nice “what ifs” in baseball historical past. Spending cash and having a couple of massive stars gained’t be sufficient.