Hey! Ian Happ Is Walkin’ Right here!

The Chicago Cubs are white scorching. Shortly after the All-Star break, the Cubbies had been as many as 8 1/2 video games out of first place within the NL Central and 6 video games beneath .500. About three weeks later, they’re a little bit higher than an even-money wager to seize a playoff spot.

So let’s speak about Ian Happ, who has been a key offensive participant for the Cubs over that span, and the odd season he’s having. When you make a behavior of checking the most important league stroll fee leaderboards recurrently, as I’m positive all of us do, you’ll little question have observed that Happ is within the high 5 with a 16.1% stroll fee. (All stats present by way of Tuesday’s motion.)

Now, Happ has at all times been able to drawing a stroll; his profession stroll fee heading into this season was 11.2%, which is fairly excessive. However you wouldn’t consider him as one of the discerning hitters in baseball — Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Max Muncy, and so forth. Till this season.

When you drop the minimal plate look threshold to 300 PA, Ryan Noda pops up with the second-highest stroll fee in baseball, which is of curiosity (although maybe solely to me) as a result of Happ and Noda performed school baseball collectively. It’s fairly widespread for school teammates to succeed collectively within the professionals, however Happ and Noda attended the College of Cincinnati, which is much from a baseball powerhouse. The Bearcats largely exist at hand one extraordinarily annoying loss per season to both Louisville or a Large Ten group.

Solely six Bearcat place gamers have appeared within the main leagues for the reason that introduction of the Wild Card: Happ, Noda, Kevin Youkilis, Josh Harrison, Tony Campana, and Joey Wiemer. Which suggests Weimer is ultimately going to have to decide on between changing into an on-base machine or a nightmare to tag out in a rundown.

And he could have time to decide on, as a result of Happ wasn’t born this fashion.

The query with Happ, as it’s with all change hitters, is whether or not to deal with him as a single unified hitter, or to take an method knowledgeable by the Kurlans from Star Trek: The Subsequent Technology. Briefly: Is he one hitter, or two?

Happ has walked this a lot from one facet of the plate in earlier particular person seasons, however by no means each on the similar time. Taken on the entire, Happ is totally swinging much less, and strolling much more, than he did final 12 months. In truth, no hitter has improved his stroll fee as a lot as Happ has from final 12 months to this one:

The change in Happ’s recreation is fairly simple to identify. Right here’s Happ’s Swing% warmth map as a left-handed hitter in opposition to righties in 2023:

That warmth map exhibits, to me, an excellent sense of the place the zone is and the place it isn’t. Happ goes after pitches out over the plate, particularly up within the zone. No marvel he’s walked 16.9% of the time from the left facet this 12 months. That’s up nearly six share factors from his left-side stroll fee in 2022, however the form of the warmth map is analogous.

Now, distinction that to his right-on-left warmth map from 2022:

This can be a mess. If the ball is middle-in and wherever close to the zone vertically, Happ goes after it. Final 12 months, he walked simply 5.0% of the time in his right-handed plate appearances, his lowest mark from both facet of the plate since his rookie 12 months. This 12 months, he’s cleaned that up loads:

He’ll nonetheless chase up and out of the zone, however he’s shedding pitches low and in. In consequence, his stroll fee from the best facet is as much as 14.0%.

You possibly can see Happ’s newfound selectivity right here, together with his swing fee and wOBA by assault zone. The shadow and chase zones are the place hitters get themselves into bother, and Happ has develop into way more selective in these fringe areas:

I’m satisfied that Happ has taken an enormous step ahead since final 12 months when it comes to strike zone judgment. He’s making fewer unhealthy choices across the edges of the zone, and drawing tons extra walks in consequence. Like, it’s arduous to overstate the impact of a seven-point leap in stroll fee for a participant who was already hitter to start with.

So why is his wRC+ mainly the identical because it was final 12 months?

Already on this chart you possibly can see one of many two potential explanations: Happ is getting screwed on batted ball luck. Or a minimum of, he was getting absurdly fortunate final 12 months and has regressed to the imply. I’d purchase that clarification, significantly as a result of he’s hitting barely extra line drives and fly balls this 12 months than he did in 2022. However I already spent a bunch of time poring over Happ’s method and manufacturing by batting facet and assault zone, so why not look a little bit deeper?

Let’s take a look at a 3rd assault zone: the guts of the plate. That is the zone the place you’d anticipate hitters to have the best swing fee, as a result of something they take is all however sure to be known as a strike. It’s additionally the place you’d anticipate hitters to have one of the best offensive numbers after they do swing, as a result of if a pitch is within the coronary heart of the zone, you need to hit the bejeezus out of it:

That’s a little bit regarding. Happ’s swinging much less right here, too, within the area the place you need to swing as a lot as potential. However possibly he’s not being passive, simply merely extra selective, and he’s getting extra bang per swing on fewer swings over the center of the plate:

Thanks for bearing with me by way of all this Statcast jargon, by the way in which. I’m effectively conscious that Coronary heart Contact High quality appears like a particular Dashboard Confessional LP the place Chris Carrabba re-records all of the band’s absolutely electrified singles like “Stolen” and “Belle of the Boulevard” within the stripped-down solo acoustic guitar type circa The Swiss Military Romance.

Anyway. Happ’s (relative) lack of energy on pitches within the coronary heart of the zone would jive with the 30-point drop in SLG that’s accompanied his 30-point rise in OBP from 2022 to 2023. His hard-hit fee is down this 12 months as effectively. The discrepancy between Happ’s wOBA and xwOBA appears to level to an impending energy resurgence, however I’ll throw one final desk at you that implies that Happ has truly misplaced a smidgen of energy since final season:

If Happ has determined to commerce energy for OBP, I believe it’s a sensible commerce. Happ is twentieth out of 144 certified hitters in OBP this 12 months. Final 12 months, he was fifty fifth out of 130 in SLG. Merely put, his potential to get on base now’s rarer than his energy was in 2022. Alternatively, he’s shored up an enormous weak point in his plate self-discipline, and is a pair cans of spinach from making higher contact on pipe pictures and turning into the second coming of Chipper Jones. Both manner, strolling extra is nice for you. We’d all lead more healthy lives if we did the identical.