AJ Preller couldn’t preserve it going without end. For years, he had his fingerprints on each main commerce and free company signing. He received Juan Soto! He received Josh Hader! He made a last-second go at Aaron Choose earlier than signing Xander Bogaerts. He constructed up a strong farm system after which lovingly tore it aside for established main leaguers, and he did it so ceaselessly that he appeared to be in on each final deal.
This deadline, Preller lastly rested. Earlier within the day, he engaged in some mild veteran-snagging exercise, including Wealthy Hill and Ji Man Choi in alternate for a prospect sampler platter. A bit later, he swapped Ryan Weathers for Garrett Cooper and Sean Reynolds, however there was no seismic transfer to observe. The Padres’ final involvement with the commerce deadline was one other modest swing. They acquired Scott Barlow from the Royals in alternate for prospects Henry Williams and Jesus Rios.
I’ll stage with you: this one gained’t transfer the needle a lot. Barlow is a reliever archetype, reliably unreliable because of devastating stuff and lackluster command. He had a 3.62 FIP final 12 months and checks in at 3.63 thus far this 12 months. Constant such as you wouldn’t consider! However he had a 2.18 ERA final season and has a ghastly 5.35 mark thus far this 12 months, so whoops.
That ERA could be attributed to a .340 BABIP and a teensie strand price, however to be sincere, watching Barlow pitch doesn’t give me the vibe of a mid-3.00s ERA reliever. He’s been fairly hittable because of his lack of command. He’s usually thus far behind within the depend that he’s laying one in there. When he doesn’t try this, he’s usually lacking his goal and leaving the ball over the center anyway. His slider and curveball are each wonderful, and he’s going to get his justifiable share of strikeouts it doesn’t matter what, however he looks like a relentless implosion threat. Guys like him go from efficient to can’t-buy-a-strike quicker than you’d assume typically.
That seems like an uninspiring commerce pickup, however take a look at it this manner: he’s most likely not worse than Brent Honeywell. Honeywell has pitched his method down the bullpen hierarchy all 12 months. Tim Hill isn’t far behind him; he’s gone from lefty specialist to maybe-we-can-try-him-against-righties to only dangerous in pretty quick order. Tom Cosgrove is consuming away at Hill’s lefty specialist enjoying time already, which makes Hill’s roster spot considerably superfluous. With two relievers who look DFA-worthy, including Barlow will assist the Padres clear out the chaff along with hopefully offering extra wheat.
I feel the comparatively mild return on Kansas Metropolis’s facet says so much about how the league views Barlow’s threat of smash. Relievers with nearer stuff have been in scorching demand this commerce deadline. Barlow didn’t fetch that sort of return. Williams is kind of a lottery ticket, a post-TJ restoration mission who clearly hasn’t recovered simply but. A 5.90 FIP, even within the Cal League, will not be what you prefer to see. He’s additionally strolling numerous batters for somebody whose command is a promoting level, and he’s sitting 90-92 mph thus far this 12 months, nicely off his pre-surgery type.
There are attention-grabbing elements of Williams’ profile, little question. He has a beautiful curveball and a pleasant supply, so you possibly can think about him honing his command and turning into a kind of feel-over-stuff starters that each staff wants. The primary 12 months after TJ could be tough; perhaps there’s one other gear in him someplace. However uh… perhaps it’s the cynic in me, however I can’t see the Royals being the staff to unlock that as-yet-unseen type in him. They don’t have a historical past of getting essentially the most out of their minor league pitchers, to place it mildly.
Rios, the second pitcher headed to Kansas Metropolis within the deal, is a 21-year-old pitching within the Dominican Summer season League. Per Eric Longenhagen, he’s a broad-shouldered righty with a repeatable supply who throws a heavy sinker within the 92-94 mph vary. He enhances it with a changeup and a cutter, each of which stay within the higher 80s. That’s all I’ve for you, to be sincere. Guys that previous don’t normally pitch within the DSL, and he solely has 18 innings value of outcomes there anyway. The chances of him making a distinction within the main leagues are miniscule.
All issues thought-about, I feel it is a strong commerce for the Padres, however one which’s extra of a small victory than a season-changer. They discovered themselves caught between reloading and including, solely 5 video games out of the playoffs and with the third-best run differential within the NL. That’s not teardown-worthy, however the staff actually needs to compete subsequent 12 months as nicely given its present building, so spending significant prospect capital on leases didn’t make a lot sense both. Barlow can be round subsequent season and he didn’t value a lot, two factors in his favor.
If we take the truth that San Diego was going to make some transfer as a given, I feel this one reveals admirable moderation. You don’t must make waves at each alternative, it doesn’t matter what Preller’s former habits would possibly point out. Generally it’s okay to tinker across the edges. If the Padres are ok to make the playoffs, it gained’t be due to this commerce; it’ll be due to all of the heavy lifting they did previously. That is merely a tiny complement at a low value.
On the Royals facet of issues, they certainly remorse hanging on to Barlow for thus lengthy. He’s been a commerce goal for years now, and so they ended up dealing him for a return that will have felt mild final 12 months. I nonetheless assume they did the correct factor by buying and selling him, and buying and selling him for speculative future worth as an alternative of no matter that Nicky Lopez commerce was. However make no mistake about it: issues will not be good in Kansas Metropolis, and so they don’t determine to get good anytime quickly. The large league staff is dangerous, the farm system is twenty eighth out of 30, and it’s not like they’ve extra trades to make to replenish their minor league ranks.
None of that makes this Barlow commerce a failure. It doesn’t even have a lot to do with Barlow, actually. The purpose is that this: the Royals are in such a gap that it’ll take far various reliever trades to dig them out of it. That doesn’t imply they shouldn’t make these trades, however it’s a useful actuality verify. Whenever you’re delving this deep into the commerce deadline mine, nobody’s getting wealthy, and even dying attempting. They’re nonetheless needed strikes – simply, that is extra rearranging the deck chairs than turning the boat.