Baseball is a sport of uncertainty. Half an inch right here or there will be the distinction between a strikeout and a house run. Balls bounce surprisingly. Matchups don’t even out. The wind is blowing simply the mistaken manner at some point, or simply the suitable manner the following. However two issues reoccur like Haley’s comet within the fashionable sport: the Brewers are a couple of hitters in need of a potent lineup and Mark Canha posts an above common however unexciting batting line. Right this moment, these two issues are teaming up – the Mets traded Canha to the Brewers in trade for prospect Justin Jarvis.
It’s not that the Brewers plan on a punchless lineup. They’ve drafted loads of hitters lately, and made trades to safe others moreover. Prior to now few years, they’ve traded for Willy Adames, Jesse Winker, Rowdy Tellez, and William Contreras. They’ve promoted Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer. Carlos Santana joined the group final week. By means of all of it, although, they’ve all the time appeared a couple of bats brief. Somebody will get injured. Somebody regresses. The tip end result? An offense scuffling round or beneath league common, with a couple of spots offering downright embarrassing manufacturing.
This 12 months, the whole infield has failed Milwaukee. Luis Urías hit his manner again to the minors; Adames has a .202/.287/.388 line, good for an 82 wRC+. Turang is even worse, hitting .208/.278/.314 (61 wRC+). Brewers first basemen have a decidedly not good 69 wRC+ in combination. Having an additional batter within the lineup hasn’t softened the blow, both: Brewers DHs have hit .205/.301/.308, the second-worst DH manufacturing throughout the majors. Regardless of a gaping gap on the high of the NL Central the place the Cardinals normally characteristic, the Brewers have fallen out of first place due to the upstart Reds. They want extra firepower, and the earlier, the higher.
Canha won’t be what you image if you hear “extra firepower.” His most exit velocity this 12 months ranks within the forty eighth percentile throughout baseball. That’s nothing new; he’s been bouncing round between the fortieth and sixtieth percentile for the previous 4 years. He’s solely eclipsed 20 homers as soon as, in dinger-mad 2019. He’s not even a Mookie Betts sort whose uncooked energy performs up; his barrel charge hasn’t overwhelmed the league common since that very same 2019 season.
That’s all true, however Canha nonetheless will get his as a result of he has an amazing sense of the strike zone. He hardly ever chases unhealthy pitches. He makes a ton of contact when he does swing. A profession double-digit stroll charge is smart given these abilities. He strikes out greater than you’d suppose on condition that rosy description of his plate self-discipline, however that’s simply because he works a whole lot of deep counts. The full bundle is principally what you’d count on: stable on-base numbers, subpar slugging, and general manufacturing someplace between 10 and 20% higher than common.
Canha’s 2023 has been no exception. Whereas the Mets have fallen out of rivalry, he has authored a typically stable season. He’s putting out much less often than in any earlier season, which has buoyed his line regardless of simply six homers and a .279 BABIP. Solely two Brewers have out-hit Canha this 12 months over 150 plate appearances or extra, which is actually stunning. 5 completely different Mets have, and the Mets are terrible!
All of that to say, the Brewers have a whole lot of holes to fill and Canha matches lots of them simply advantageous. He can DH. He can spell each outfield corners (Frelick and Christian Yelich), or heart area in a pinch. When Tellez returns, they’re a pure proper/left platoon. Maybe I’m not promoting this strongly sufficient, however that’s a very nice participant, the form of hitter the Brewers have been lacking for years. Canha’s not a famous person, or perhaps a star, but it surely’s arduous to take a look at his outcomes and see something worse than a great bat.
To sweeten the pot, the Mets stapled a bag of cash to Canha’s jersey. Extra particularly, they’re paying all of his wage besides the league minimal, as Mark Feinsand reported. The Brewers usually function with a good finances they usually’ve already made some trades this 12 months. Subsequent 12 months’s group possibility – a $2 million buyout or one 12 months for $11.5 million – supplies a doable bonus and a particular small price, however almost definitely he’s only a rental.
So as to add Canha, the Brewers despatched the Mets an intriguing pitching prospect. Jarvis wasn’t actually on the radar earlier than this 12 months, and Eric Longenhagen defined to me why: He’s a type of pitchers who appears fairly common when he’s sitting 90-92 and unhittable when he’s 92-94. (Guess how arduous he’s throwing now.) His finest pitch is a four-seamer with big vertical motion. He sports activities an nearly completely over-the-top supply; image a catapult laying siege to a medieval fortress, and also you’re many of the manner there. Meaning a reasonably excessive launch level, and therefore a less-shallow vertical strategy angle than is right for four-seamers, however the motion and a little bit of deception make it a superb pitch nonetheless.
After that fastball, he throws a slider/splitter/curve combine, with the slider in all probability the very best of the bunch. Honestly, the fastball is doing a whole lot of the heavy lifting, and he throws his slider as a lot as his splitter and curve mixed. His command is inconsistent – he acquired his stroll charge beneath management for the primary time in his profession this 12 months in Double-A, however then walked 12 batters in three begins in Triple-A. In a whole lot of methods, he’s a two-pitch reliever ready to occur.
I pointed this out to Eric, however in his thoughts, the Mets will doubtless proceed to make use of him as a starter whereas he has minor league choices remaining. There are extra possibilities to catch lightning in a bottle that manner, extra possibilities that he’ll grasp his command. Within the meantime, he can pop down from Syracuse to Queens for a low-inning spot begin or some lengthy reduction when the most important league pitching workers is exhausted. There’s a whole lot of worth in having swingmen with choices remaining. That feels prefer it could possibly be his position as quickly as subsequent 12 months; he’ll must be on the 40-man roster this winter to keep away from the Rule 5 draft.
Jarvis didn’t make our preseason Brewers record, however his efficiency this 12 months has put him again on the radar. He’s a 40 FV pitcher per Eric — proper on the starter/reliever borderline — on the again of that fastball and the hope that he can discover sufficient strikes and sufficient secondaries to enrich it.
Generally, a group’s wants are simply boring. That’s the case right here. I don’t have a ton of earth-shattering new data to convey to you about Canha or how he’ll match on the Brewers. He’s offense in a can, they usually’re wildly brief on offense. He’s in all probability roughly a median participant all-in at this level in his profession, his future contract isn’t compelling, and he’s pushing 35. Nobody’s going to put in writing a tick-tock of how this commerce went down.
That’s true, however it is a nice instance of two groups getting what they want out of a small deal. The Brewers desires to provide fewer plate appearances to actually dreadful hitters, they usually don’t notably care what place they’re changing: verify. The Mets are on a mission to spend Steve Cohen’s cash to purchase prospects, any prospects (although they’ve principally gotten good ones): verify.
Even when I can see why each groups are doing this, I believe I’d favor to be the Brewers. The Mets are simply getting what they’ll; they have been unlikely to train Canha’s possibility they usually don’t have something left to play for this 12 months. That’s good enterprise, notably given how keen Cohen is to pay down salaries to get extra prospects. However Milwaukee’s finish? Mark Canha is a fairly good participant to get again for a Rule 5-eligible pitcher with command questions.
Let’s put it this manner: It’s in all probability simpler for the Brewers to draft and develop a pile of Jarvises than it’s to search out constant, Canha-level offense. If leases like him – roughly common, low-cost (post-Cohen), dependable, versatile – are on provide at this charge, why on the planet would you go signal a Josh Bell or a Brandon Belt in free company? They acquired to check out inner choices – whoops, yeah, these didn’t work – and nonetheless ended up with a stable hitter at a discount basement value. If pitchers maintain fetching big returns in commerce on the deadline, the optimum habits appears clear: give attention to getting some pitching in free company, then purchase rental bats as acceptable.
The ever-pragmatic Brewers have stumbled upon a fairly good technique right here. The Mets are taking what the market will give them. Jarvis would possibly find yourself nice (definitely doable) and Canha would possibly disappoint (comparatively unlikely), however placing your group ready the place you get to make trades like Jarvis-for-Canha as an alternative of Quero-for-Giolito is one thing to aspire to. If and when David Stearns takes over in Queens in a couple of years, perhaps he can replicate the technique there.